Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Rekindling an Old Flame

Your first love stays with you forever. Or at least that's what the movies would lead us to believe. Yet, over the years I had become distant from mine. In fact, I had become so jaded by her faults that I had forgotten what had made me fall in love with her in the first place.

But I found Baseball again this past Saturday night in Charlotte, NC.

Don't get me wrong...I still saw her from time to time since we quit going steady back when I was in college, but it was no longer the same for me. I remember literally having tears in my eyes when I watched my old high school teammate Hiawatha "Terrell" Wade pitch for the Braves in the World Series. Such was the emotional pull she had on me.

Lately though, I resented her. There wasn't much to love anymore. Bud Selig and the Union had ruined the game for me. Crazy inflated stats from the steroids era have served to gloss over the accomplishments of the heroes I grew up watching in the 80's. (It's shameful that Andre Dawson isn't in the Hall of Fame) And it's no fun to watch these juiced up guys play. Half of them can't field their position, nobody bunts anymore, and the entire Major Leagues don't combine to steal as many bases as Vince Coleman and Rickey Henderson would in an average season. My recent baseball experiences have revolved around business/social occasions where folks just sat around drinking beer in extremely overpriced seating waiting to watch a rerun of a home run on the new high definition jumbotrons so common in the new ballparks.

But ah Saturday night.

I was bored and looking for something to do with the wife. I got the random thought and suggested we should go to a ballgame. Don't know why. It just popped into my head. I looked them up online and discovered you could get field level box seats for 13 bucks and there would be a fireworks display to boot. So I twisted my wife's arm and she said she'd go (I think it was the promise of fireworks). I called the ticket office and got seats in the second row above the home dugout.

We got to the ballpark and walked to our seats. They were ridiculously close to the diamond. I've been in dugouts that didn't put you as close to the action. It smelled right. It sounded right. There was wonder in little kids eyes. The baseball was crisp. Two clubs filled with guys close enough to the Show that they could taste it and you could tell. Prospects looking to get their first Big League cup of coffee and guys like Wilson Betemit trying to get back. They played the game the way it is supposed to be played. Some of them even ran hard on ground balls...

I had a snow cone. I had crackerjack. I "talked baseball" with the guy keeping score beside me.

And I drew comfort. Comfort that not even Bud Selig, Donald Fehr, Scott Boras, George Steinbrenner, Arod, Bonds, Clemens, etc can extinguish the flame I still carry for my first love.

My old flame was back and my wife didn't seem to mind. It was a sweet reunion indeed.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Obama GM "investment" not likely to pay off

You've got to hand it to Barack Obama. He's got a special kind of ambition. We've all known the smart, over achieving kind of kid in school who might have claimed he wanted to be a CEO of a major corporation. And most every high school Student Council President has harbored at least a passing thought of being President of the United States. Now Barack Obama has it all. In addition to his duties as POTUS, he has the "honor" of being the de facto CEO of General Motors. (You could say the same thing about Chrysler and AIG too)

The federal government has poured about 50 billion into GM since the "bailouts" started. However, we are told not to fret because this isn't really the government just throwing money away, this is an investment. In fact, we the American Taxpayers, are now the majority shareholder of General Motors. All we need now is to sit back and wait for CEO Obama to wave his magic wand and then watch as motorists the world over chose to buy Chevy Volts instead of Toyota Camrys.

Does anyone really believe that's going to happen?

Let's put this in perspective. If we assume that the federal government doesn't invest another dime in GM on top of the 50 billion already committed, GM would have to post an 80 billion dollar valuation in order for the taxpayers to BREAK EVEN. Consider that GM's market cap just prior to bankruptcy was just a shade over 1 billion. (At it's highest point, GM's valuation was around 56 billion in 2000 when the company actually posted around 19 billion in positive cash flow).

So we are to expect that government management of what is going to be a considerably smaller GM post bankruptcy is going to eclipse the zenith of pre-bankrupcy GM which in 2000 boasted 8 brands and a highly profitable finance unit (GMAC) which accounted for one third of its earnings?

It's just not going to happen friends. This is going to be a train wreck. While Obama says he doesn't want politics getting in the way of business decisions at GM, you can rest assured they will. In fact they already have. The UAW has already pressured Congress into restricting the number of cars that GM manufacturs in foreign countries that can be imported into the United States. And that's just the beginning. Congress will stick their noses deeper and deeper into this under the guise of "protecting the taxpayer's investment". Anyone who thinks they won't is delusional.

What's happening to the American automobile industry is eerily similar to when the government basically nationalized commuter rail service almost 40 years ago. Government wouldn't be involved for long and the venture would surely be turning a profit in no time.

And of course we all know how that story has turned out...if we're lucky the government's foray into the auto business will be as wildly successful as Amtrak.